Commentary from a USAFA Grad

Sunday, December 31, 2006

Islamists Not Welcome in Somalia

Clan elders ask Islamic fanatics to leave.

As fighting began to flare up today around Kismayo, the final redoubt for Somalia's diminished Islamic movement, elders within the city demanded that the Islamists leave.


Somalians are more interested in power and clans than they are religion. The one thing that is missing in Somalia for the fanatical Islamists is the fanatical part. As poorly as the US misjudged the Iraqi culture, the fanatical Islamists misjudged the people on their third front of global jihad, Somalia.

Local support in Kismayo is evaporating, as it did last week in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital, when clan elders decided that the Islamists were a losing cause and pulled their troops and weapons out of the movement.


For fanatical jihad to work, the population must first identify themselves with Islam above all else. This isn't the case in Somalia where the population first identifies itself by clans above all else.

This is a question that must be asked in any country with a large Islamic population. how do they identify themselves? Do they see themselves as French, German, American, or as Islamic? And if so, where do their loyalties lie if their country and their religion conflict?

How should the US react to radical Islamists residing in the US preach about subverting the government-which is currently being practiced in certain mosques in the US?

This subversion should be treated just the same as if it was a gathering of communists, socialists, fascists or anarchists wanting to subvert the government. They should be tried and convicted of conspiracy. The freedom of religion is not a license to commit conspiracy.

Organizations like the ACLU though would fight any action taken by the US government to protect itself.

Recently, an Islamic American was sworn in to the US congress with a Koran. Will there ever be a time in a century or two when congressmen will be required to be sworn in on a Koran and the ACLU is eliminated by some of the very people it defended? How would Hillary Clinton's run for presidency look under the cloak of an Islamic ruled nation?

Saddam's Hanging Not what it First Appeared to Be

Sectarian overtones shadow Saddam Hussein's hanging.

The men who guided him to the gallows were drawn from the country's Shiite south, identifiable by their darker skins and accents. The Shiites of southern Iraq harbor a strong hatred for Mr. Hussein for his repression of uprisings there, a repression that killed tens of thousands of Shiites.


The first images of Saddam's execution appeared to be solemn and dignified. After the release of the cellphone images the world saw a different view of the execution.

The irony is the person who did the videotaping with the cellphone who was most likely a victim of Saddam (although it could have been one of Saddam's defense attorneys) only damaged his cause. This video will come back to haunt the victims of Saddam.

Executioners dance a jig.

The Iraqis were so delighted at the despot’s demise that immediately after his death they danced a jig around his body as it dangled from the noose.


Justice is not delivered with emotion. When emotions are brought into an execution there will be a score to settle at a later date.

In the US the victims get their say in the courtroom, but don't deliver the sentence. That is the jury and judge's job who are theoretically emotionally detached from the victims and defendant. And the execution is carried out by a third party not involved with the trial.

Letting the victims extract their punishment from the defendant will add an emotional dimension to the punishment that anyone affiliated with the defendant will feel compelled to extract their pound of flesh.

This is what leads to gang wars in the violent parts of US cities and sectarian violence in Iraq and elsewhere.

Saturday, December 30, 2006

Somalia War Baffles the United Nations

How should the UN react to the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia?

As one of the most confounded organizations, the UN doesn't know how to react to the current situation in Somalia.

At face value you have a country conducting a preemptive attack on a sovereign country with a threatening government in power. This parallels the US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq. The UN approved of the US actions in Afghanistan but not Iraq.

This puts the UN in a sticky position as to which side of the fence it should fall on in the case of Ethiopia which preemptively attacked Somalia after the radical Islamists who forced their way into power in the summer of 2006 made threatening statements towards Ethiopia.

Add to this the UN's failure in Somalia fifteen years ago when the government of Somalia broke down and the country fell into sectarian violence between clans.

After this failure, the UN was tentative when genocide erupted in Rawanda. Because of its experience in Somalia the UN and the rest of the world, with the notable exception of France, failed to act in a timely matter in Rawanda.

And presently the Islamic run Sudanese government has been permitted to eradicate the Christian population in Darfur without the UN reacting in an effective manner.

So has the UN has handcuffed itself by its lack of response to the African genocides in the past? Will it look hypocritical to take action against Ethiopia that faced a legitimate threat?

Barack Obama First US Politician with Statement on Hussein's Death

Barak Obama was the first US politician making a run for the 2008 presidency to come out with a statement about the hanging of Saddam Hussein according to some news agencies.

He said the right things, about how Iraq will be better off-justice served, or something to that effect. The content really doesn't matter. It is all the same platitudes slick politicians put out.

What mattered was that it was such a perfect statement, you don't remember much of the content. What makes a person leery of politicians (which should be all of us) about Obama is just what Tom DeLay had to say? Who is this Barack Obama guy?

Does Obama just come out and make popular decisions and statements? When has he gone against the popular point of view? If he has, which is most certain, he's done a very good job about keeping it quite.

Of the four leading candidates for the 2008 presidency, McCain, Guilliani, Clinton and Obama, each of the other 3 have their warts. They've made unpopular choices or at least decisions that would be at odds with their party.

For this reason alone I could never vote for Barack Obama. He reminds me more of Bill Clinton than Hillary Clinton does. "Slick" Obama?

However, Obama teamed with Hillary Clinton will make a formidable team. I'm pretty sure there is working in the democratic party that will tame the rhetoric in their primaries to give the appearance of a real primary race, but nothing that would reveal too much dirt of either candidate.

It is obvious Obama's star has risen too quickly. From a virtual unknown in 2004 to a major contender in 2006 with the election two years away yet doesn't bode well for Obama.

Like everyone, Obama has warts, it will just take time for the media to dig them out. His rise to fame is reminiscent of Howard Dean's race in 2004. Going into the primaries he was the runaway front runner and by the end he was a shriveled up, "thanks for playing," also ran.

The difference between Dean and Obama though, was that Dean was upfront about where he stood on the issues almost to a fault.

Ethiopian Troops Look to Eradicate Last Outposts of Radical Islamists

Ethiopian troops moving in on Kismayo by the Indian Ocean south of Mogadishu.

A phalanx of Ethiopian tanks and armored personnel carriers chugged toward the last city occupied by Somalia’s diminished Islamist movement, witnesses said today, setting the stage for one final major battle.


Having eradicated the radical Islamists who took control of Somalia this summer, from the Somalian capital, Mogadishu, Ethiopian troops are now turning southward to finish the job.

The American supplied and trained superior military of Ethiopia is no match for the mostly teenage rebels fighting as Islamic fanatics.

A good portion of the Islamic militia was merely opportunists and not radicals. Those have already fled the fight to blend into the population and will attach itself to whatever entity takes power in Mogadishu. These are not the same jihadis the US faces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Once the last Islamic fanatics are eliminated, the Ethiopian Army needs to remain in the country and then attempt the same feat the US is trying in Iraq and Afghanistan. There the US has unseated on government from control and stand up another.

One thing Ethiopia has in its favor is the government that will take control in Ethiopia was in power only a few months ago, so there is a definite blueprint in place.

This fact also means that the Ethiopian Army can also have a lower profile. Ethiopia and Somalia also doesn't need to concern itself with world opinion as much as the US either. Therefore the Rules OF Engagement for the troops on the ground will not interfere in their ability to establish control.

In summary, the Etiopian Army will be able to accomplish in months what the US military has taken years to do.

But that doesn't mean the US was not involved. The US definitely had a hand in Ethiopia's course of action. By using a proxy, the US can circumvent world and domestic opinion. In a way, it is the smartest military action the US has incited in a very long time.

Hell Has One Less Vacancy, Saddam Dead

Closure for may in Iraq.

Is this the first step to a stable Iraq? Maybe, maybe not, but it was a necessary step for Iraq to rid itself of its past.

"if you speak, you are an enemy of the state," Saddam threatened the prosecuting the attorney just prior to closing arguments in his trial. These are the words of a man who believed he was still in power and would one day have the opportunity to exact hi revenge on the 'enemy of the state.'

For many in Iraq, the specter of Saddam Hussein loomed over the future. Those who have been at the receiving end of Saddam's torture, it was hard to truly feel liberated until now. And even now it won't feel real for some until they've seen the video of his hanging. For these people, today truly is a new day in Iraq.

For others, the Ba'athists, this is the end of Iraq as they know it in a different way. For Ba'athists, there is no hope of Saddam rising from the ashes to take power again. The next step for the Ba'athists, will be something to track. They could take up with the Al Qaeda factions or they could try to blend into society and try to make the best of the future. It would seem the younger Ba'athists would try to blend in and try to build a future for themselves in their home country.

In the end Saddam was "broken, weak and afraid." We all meet our maker eventually and will be judged by our faith and our deeds. On the morning of 30 December, 2006, it would appear hell has one less vacancy.

Friday, December 29, 2006

Mogadishu in Turmoil

Ethiopian Troops in Same Position as US.

"Get out of our country!" some yelled. "We hate you, Ethiopians!"

But a few hours later, thousands of Mogadishu's residents came out to warmly greet Ali Mohamed Gedi, the prime minister of the transitional government of Somalia, which succeeded in driving out the Islamist movement that had ruled the city, thanks only to Ethiopian military might


It is a curious turn of events that have taken place in Ethiopia. A sovereign nation, Ethiopia, is threatened by another, at the time Islamic ruled Somalia, and preemptively attacks it.

After ousting the current regime, the Islamists, Ethiopia, for all intents and purposes, supports the establishment of a new government.

This is pretty much the same game plan as the US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Mogadishu, apparently, is a city of mixed signals. While some people are relieved to see the Ethiopian troops, who seem to be providing much needed security, others are suspicious and angry. The viewpoint often sharply differs by clan, an ominous sign of the re- emerging clan tensions that have dominated this city for so long and plunged it into anarchy.


The clan hierarchy in Somalia that the new government will have to contend with can be compared to the sectarian violence now taking place in Iraq between the Sunnis and Shias.

However, Gedi seems to know how to take control of things.

"This country has been through a lot of anarchy," Gedi said, "so to re-establish order we will have to have an iron hand."


He also plans on collecting weapons from around the city. As stated in previous articles about Somalia, the people are exhausted of war and are looking for any type of order. And that probably includes heavy handed rule.

It will be interesting to see what the Ethiopian army does next. It will most likely follow the Islamic militia it pushed out of Mogadishu to an area in southern Somalia called Kismayo.

But Kismayo could be the scene of the next major battle and possibly the final battle in this surprisingly short war that began less than one week ago when Ethiopia started an aggressive pre-emptive strike on the Islamists.


One major difference between Somalia and Iraq though, is that Ethiopia doesn't care too much if Ethiopia breaks down into clan warfare. Ethiopia was only interested in removing the Islamists from power.

With such a small world profile and the current state of affairs in Africa, specifically the Darfur region of Sudan, Ethiopia can afford to leave Somalia in disarray.

The US could never get away with type of action without suffering in world opinion which would eventually be reflected in domestic elections.

China's Unrestricted Warfare.

Unrestricted Warfare by Qiao and Wang.

Unrestricted Warfare is a must read and reveals the depths China will dive to in order to unseat the US as the world's hegemon.

The one question I received more than any other while writing this paper (my master's paper) was, “What should America’s response be? What can America do to stop this?” If I had a good answer I would offer that up right now. However, I do not.

England was the last empire to face a slow steady decline like the U.S. is currently experiencing. It made a distinct choice at the commencement of World War One not to back Germany, but to throw its hat in with France hoping it could thwart Germany’s rise. Unfortunately for England there was more to the equation.

The best position during war is that of arms supplier. While other countries were spending their fortune fighting the war, the U.S. sat back and supplied the war efforts. WWII replayed this same scenario to some extent. The United States produced arms and built a strong economic base from its industrial capabilities developed in the first half of the Twentieth Century.

As we saw in, The World is Flat, the U. S. economy is no longer based on industry. Today the world wants three things, cheap labor, information, and innovation. Cheap labor cannot be found in the U.S., information can be outsourced, leaving the U.S. with innovation. America must focus on its educational capabilities to corner the innovation market. The U.S. still leads in new patents, this fact is the cornerstone of the future American economy.

The only other crevice the United States could possibly exploit with China is world opinion. As stated earlier, China is willing to foster relationships with countries that are not admired in the world community such as Sudan and Iran. Unfortunately, when facts like these are brought up, Americans themselves are usually the first to air dirty laundry about who and what relationships the U.S. has entertained in the past.

The next question is how much does world opinion even matter? For all the trade the U.S. enjoys with China, it is hard to envision what it would take for the America to curb its appetite for cheap Chinese goods.

If it is a foregone conclusion that China will create a multi-polar world with itself as one of the major players what would China consider victory. This is nearly impossible to say because China is a closed society that prides itself on secrecy. Denying the enemy knowledge of your true intentions is key. Without know which way China plans on going, the U.S. cannot build a coherent defense. And as stated previously, the U.S. political body has difficulty building a long-term strategy even with a static enemy (long-term Social Security financing).

What do I think victory would be for China? If China can destabilize the U.S. dollar to the point that oil is traded in yuan instead of greenbacks, I think China would be satisfied with its efforts. What can the U.S. do about it? I’m not sure what exactly the United States could do, but I am sure the measures that would need to be taken would be too difficult for any politician to take and still get re-elected.

Related Articles:

South Korea labels North Korea a Serious Military Threat

South Korean military white paper increases wariness of North Korea.n

In its biennial white paper, South Korea's ministry of defence said the threat from the North had risen, although the country was not yet a full-fledged nuclear power.


It will be interesting to see if this white paper affects the thinking of the average South Korean. Recently America has fallen out of favor with the South.

As the Korean was fades into the past, the newer generations do not appreciate the sacrifices on the US during the Korean war. Because of this the South's opinion of the US has declined while their affinity for the North has increased.

Back in the 1990s it was rumored that the US military was in Korea not to prevent the North from coming South, but to prevent the South from invading the North.

"North Korea's conventional forces, its nuclear test, weapons of mass destruction and the forward deployment of troops are a serious threat to our security," the report said.


So will the South turn to the US again as its protector? Most likely not. Although the military recognizes the military threat to the north, he younger generation will identify with their norther brother more so than the US.

Unfortunately, this leave the South in a weakened position. Japan will also grow militarily because of the North Korean threat. And unlike South Korea, Japan has no ties to North Korea to cloud their feelings.

China's interests are only self serving. So where does that leave South Korea. Even during the 6-party negotiations to disarm North Korea, South Korea (along with Russia) tend to be the least vocal.

Luckily, for South Korea, its economy is growing well. at 4% with 3.7% unemployment. But is this economic growth blinding the population to the growing threat in the north? Hopefully, the South Korean white paper will not ring on deaf ears.


Related Articles:

Thursday, December 28, 2006

Saddam Dead by Sunday

US to hand over Saddam shortly to the Iraqi government for execution.

Hussein will be turned over to the Iraqi government within the next 36 hours. The officer expects that the Iraqis will execute their former leader before the start of the Eid religious holiday on Sunday.


However the exact time will not be disclosed and according to other sources, Hussein's date of departure has not been determined. But everything will be videotaped.

This is a prudent move on the part of the Iraqis and Americans. It is important to put out conflicting reports about when Hussein will be executed to diffuse any attempt of the insurgents to coordinate any action with the timing of the evil dictator's demise.

Videotaping the event is critical because of Saddam's long history of surviving assassinations, wars and other threats. The population needs some confirmation that Saddam will not come back to threaten them. He still holds a psychological hold on the minds of many Iraqis.

As The Economist states:

With the former leader dead, rather than languishing in prison, his supporters would lose any hope that they may, through violence, somehow bring him back to power.



Related Articles:

Duke DA Now in Hot Water

Defense attorneys turn table on district attorney.

The lawyers of three Duke lacrosse players who are accused of sexually assaulting a North Carolina woman have asked the U.S. attorney general to look into the prosecutor's conduct during the case, Michael Cornacchia, the attorney for defendant Collin Finnerty


It is about time someone brought some sanity to this case. There are two unfortunate outcomes to this development.

First of all, it shows that the one thing the US Constitution lacks is proper oversight on the legal system. If a lawyer is to be judged by other lawyers, he will get a pass most of the time.

"He knew that the DNA didn't match before he indicted the [defendants]," Cornacchia said. [When I was a prosecutor], I didn't accuse anybody unless I had … reasonable doubt.


When a doctor is charged with malpractice, he is brought into a courtroom where lawyers (along with a jury) determine his fate.

Imagine if instead the court was run by doctors. It is a sure bet that malpractice suits would plummet.

The other sad fact is the next accuser will have their story scrutinized harder than before.

When prosecutors interviewed the accuser for the first time — last Thursday — she said she was uncertain whether there was penetration, which differs from statements she made to police in April.

At that time, the accuser said she was brutally raped and beaten by three men during a lacrosse team party at a house near the Duke University campus, claiming that she was "vaginally penetrated by a male sex organ," without a condom. The accuser and another woman were hired as exotic dancers and paid to strip at the party.


Nifong and the accuser have struck a damaging blow to the stories of real victims and should be punished for it. The questioning in the future would be, "Were you attacked or are you just a Duke accuser?"

Nifong has not done the female population of this country any favors.

Now Nifong, who said he would still try the young men on kidnapping and sexual-offense charges, is receiving a very different kind of attention.


So he is trying to save face at this time hanging his story on a woman who is a known liar.

Hopefully, the federal government will take action and severely punish Nifong to deter any other attorney to act in such a reckless manner.

Keep an eye out on how the American Bar Association reacts to this hot potato. As a professional organization I expect them to go into damage control, but if that will be a searing indictment against Nifong or a strong defense of his actions is the question.

The answer will tell America more about the lobby group than the organization realizes.

Related Articles:

Islamic Forces Defeated in Battle for Mogadishu

Islamic forces retreat from city.

Abdirahman Janaqow, a top leader in the Islamic movement, told The Associated Press he had ordered his forces out of Mogadishu to avoid bloodshed in the capital.

"We want to face our enemy and their stooges ... away from civilians," Abdirahman Janaqow said in a telephone interview.


This statement gives the impression that the Islamic forces in Somalia are not the same breed as those in Afghanistan and Iraq. Concern about civilian casualties has rarely deterred an attack in Afghanistan or Iraq.

Yusuf Ibrahim, a former Islamic movement fighter who quit Thursday, said only the most hardcore fighters were still opposing the government and its Ethiopian backers. He numbered them at about 3,000, and said they were headed to the port city of Kismayo, south of Mogadishu.


This statement gives the impression that the majority of the warriors in Ethiopia are not the religious fanatics the world is accustom to, but only opportunists willing to jump on any bandwagon strong enough to take power.

As previously stated in, Ethiopia Attacks Somalia, Somalians are exhausted and just want stability no matter who takes power.

This is why a strong push by the Ethiopian forces right now was perfectly timed. Appearing in control is sometimes good enough when the population is willing to surrender to the strongest army and not fanatical.

Thursday in Mogadishu, gunfire echoed through the streets and hundreds of gunmen, who just hours earlier fought for Quranic rule, took off the uniforms of the Islamic movement and submitted to the command of clan elders, an AP reporter in Mogadishu said.

"I have seen that the Islamists are defeated. I'm going to rejoin my clan," said gunman Mohamed Barre Sidow. "I was forced to join the Islamic courts by my clan, so I now I will return to my clan and they will decide my fate, whether I join the government or not."


This is also why the Islamic forces controlling Somalia quickly dwindled down to 3000 which is now facing an Ethiopian army of approximately 8000.

Other witnesses reported seeing a large number of foreign fighters in the convoys heading south. Islamic movement leaders had called on foreign Muslims to join their "holy war" against the country that has backed the government, Ethiopia, which has a large Christian population. Hundreds were believed to have answered the call.


Previous reports stated that boatloads of jihadis were pouring into Somalia from elsewhere in the region. It will take at least a week to see if these reports had any merit.

The next struggle for the Somalian Islamic forces is to see who controls these new warriors if they are in fact on their way. Will these additional jihadis come with a leader or subject themselves to the Somalian leader. There is possibly enough differences in culture (between Ethiopian Islamists warriors and Middle East jihadis) that this could become a separate battle in itself.

Ethiopia has said it would not enter Mogadishu. Before the Islamists established control, Mogadishu had been ruled by competing clans who came together to support the Islamic courts. Now, the clans could return to fighting one another and may reject the government's authority


The best course of action now is for Ethiopia to back a government with military power and ensure stability in the region. Unfortunately, this arouses memories of Yugoslavia.

The clan warfare in Somalia is about political or religious movements and will always exist. But if Somalians are that tired of war, it just might turn out in Ethiopia's favor. For how long must be asked next.




Related articles

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

Saddam Hussein's Last Words and How to Hang Saddam

Saddam considers himself a martyr.

"I say goodbye to you, but I will be with the merciful God who helps those who take refuge in him and who will never disappoint any honest believer," the letter said. "I call on you not to hate because hate does not leave space for a person to be fair and it makes you blind and closes all doors of thinking."


So the butcher of Baghdad is going to be with his merciful God? This is part of the problem the US will always have when dealing with the Middle East. In some ways their culture is so insanely disconnected from reality it is hard for a secular, rational society to comprehend.

I was once locked in a intelligent conversation with a Muslim from a Middle Eastern country with a fellow American officer. The banter was rational and logical until the Muslim stated, "You know the Jews rule the world?"

The other American officer and I gave each other a quizzical look before asking why? We had this funny notion that if any country ran the world it was the US.

Finally, he explained, "It is written that whoever controls Jerusalem controls the world." And that was that. QED

This conversation taught me more about the Muslim world than anything I've ever read anywhere.

I guess this is the only way Saddam Hussein can possibly look himself in the mirror and call himself a martyr.

For the execution, the Iraqi government must be exceedingly discreet.

First of all the event must take place at and undisclosed location at an undisclosed time. A select few leaders, that can be trusted to hold their tongue (a nearly impossible feat in Iraq, I imagine) should be allowed to witness the execution.

Then once the 30 day time period is over, a news release should state that Saddam Hussein was executed at X location at Y time.

After that, other leaders will be allowed to view the body. And weeks later, the body would be available for public viewing.

By breaking the news in stages it limits the shock effect of the execution. The Saddam loyalists wouldn't know what is the pinnacle of tension caused by the execution.

By controlling the release of information, the Iraqi forces could have an advantage over the insurgents and be able to minimize their effect.

The National Minimum Wage is Outdated and Futile

It is time for the federal government to remove itself from the national minimum wage debate. A minimum wage set by the federal government is useless to the majority of the people.

A capitalist never enjoys discussing a minimum wage, however pragmatists realize it is inevitable.

That being said, I've yet to come across an intelligent way to determine what the minimum wage should be. Experts throw out numbers without putting any analysis behind it, only trying to see how much of a compromise can be reached.

I contend that in some areas of the country the minimum wage is already too high and in other parts of the country the change shouldn't be $2.00 or $3.00 but 200 or 300 percent.

The following is a comprehensive logical solution to the minimum wage debate.

As a compromise and in a rational world states are best suited to set minimum wages for their individual states. Standards of living vary widely in different parts of the country.

The federal government has no business setting 50 different minimum wages, but that is what they are tinkering with every time they adjust the minimum wage.

For example, lets look at the median house prices in Oklahoma City, OK and San Francisco, CA as an example.

Median housing prices for 2006 third quarter.


  • San Francisco: $749,400
  • Oklahoma City: $127,000

Housing is not the most definitive determiner in minimum wage, however it is better than whatever the federal government is using.

By calculating the mortgage through Bankrate.com we find, assuming 6.0% interest, a 30 year mortgage for:

  • San Francisco would cost $4493.03/month
  • Oklahoma City would cost $761.43/month

Assuming that a mortgage should be approximately one quarter of gross income we find the monthly income should be:

  • San Francisco: $17,972.12/month
  • Oklahoma City: 3045.72/month

Assuming 4 weeks at 40 hours over the month for 160 hours/month the hourly income is:

  • San Francisco: $112.36/hour/household
  • Oklahoma City: $20.30/hour/household

This is the household income so to be accurate the hourly rate should be divided by 2:

  • San Francisco: $56.18/hour
  • Oklahoma City: $10.15/hour

This is the hourly wage a person should make to afford a median house with a spouse making the same amount of money. The next calculation requires information not easily available.

The minimum (affordable house) wage should be placed at two times the standard deviation below the median. But in this less than perfectly scientific calculation lets assume the standard deviation is 25% so we can divide the hourly wage by two.

This gives us a regional minimum wage for:

  • San Francisco: $28.09/hour
  • Oklahoma City: $5.08/hour

Although the numbers may seem skewed, at least there is some rhyme or reason to their derivation versus what the federal government is trying to do.

As I've shown here, raising the minimum wage at the federal level still will not be sufficient for the San Francisco. Yet the minimum wage is already too high for the Oklahoma City.

Tuesday, December 26, 2006

Saddam to be Hanged in 30 Days or Less

Hussein's appeal is denied.

Human rights groups condemned his trial as seriously flawed and called on the government not to carry out the sentence.


Although the efforts of human rights groups like Amnesty International should be applauded. They obviously haven't checked the track record of the accused in this case.

I can't imagine a better human rights effort other than hanging Saddam Hussein.

No trial is perfect, but Hussein got the best he could under the circumstances.

This becomes a philosophical question as to whether life should be ruled by strict laws in a deontological manner or in a consequential, ends justifies the means, way.

But from a pragmatic philosophy (one Barak Obama has credited the X-generation with) hang the guy in a quiet, dignified matter and be done with it.

And then brace for the repercussions. A strict curfew should be placed on several waring parts of the country the day before and after the hanging. And even that won't stop the sure to come backlash from the Sunnis.

Sunni Arab leaders reacted angrily to the ruling, saying it was politically motivated by Saddam's former enemies now in power in a U.S.-backed Shi'ite-led national unity government.


If this isn't a threat, it would be hard to imagine what is.

Monday, December 25, 2006

America's Failed African Policy

The US never had a successful African policy, why does it think it would have one now?

Somalia may be the place that best illustrates a trend sweeping across the African continent: After Sept. 11, 2001, the United States concluded that anarchy and misery aid terrorism, and so it tried to re-engage Africa. But anti-American sentiment on the continent has only grown, and become increasingly nasty. And the United States seems unable to do much about it.


America's first comprehensive African policy came during the cold war and even that was limited to empowering sympathetic corrupt leaders who opposed communism.

The cold war kept a lid on violence on only in Yugoslavia, but other parts of the world too, including Africa.

Then during the Clinton administration, after the Somalia fiasco, America avoided unnecessary contact with Africa until 9/11.

Now, the global economic milieu is such that the world's economic engine (Asia) requires African natural resources.

For example, there is Sudan, a country that the West, and the United States in particular, has desperately tried to isolate. First, it was because of Sudan's links to terrorists. Then came reports that the government was tied to genocide in Darfur. Sanctions have been imposed, almost embarrassing amounts of diplomatic pressure have been exerted and now military threats are being made. The result: even more anti-American hatred, which plays straight into the hand of the hard-line Khartoum regime.


One of the few bright spots is the new American backed Ethiopian war on Somalian Islamic fascists. If other countries can stand up for themselves with minimal help from the US, it would be a welcome change from the current events in Iraq.

Ethiopia Attacks Somalia

Ethiopian warplanes bomb Somalian Islamic targets.

The coordinated assault was the first open admission by Ethiopia's Christian-led government of its military operations inside Somalia, where — with tacit American support — it has been helping a weak interim government threatened by forces loyal to the Islamic clerics who control the longtime capital, Mogadishu, and much of the country.


Radical Islam is trying to open a third front on their global jihad in Somalia. However, an American supplied and trained Ethiopian government is has taken matters into its own hands.

After fanatical Islamists threatened jihad on Ethiopia, Ethiopia started to slipped advisors into Somalia and have now begun a full attack with as many as 8000 troops.

"What did you expect us to do?" said Zemedkun Tekle, a spokesman for Ethiopia's information ministry. "Wait for them to attack our cities?"


What is interesting is for the average Somalian it is not about ideals. It is about exhaustion.

"We're so sick of war," said Ahmed Issa, a shopkeeper in Beledweyne. "We'll obey anybody."


If this is the case, Ethiopia has taken the perfect opportunity to make its attack. If they can overpower the Jihadis, and bring about some semblance of order, it will have a very malleable population to work with, similar to 1930s Germany.

The problem is Jihadis are pouring in from elsewhere in the Middle East by the boat load to take the fight to Ethiopia. But these are poorly trained teenagers for the most part and don't offer any coordinated resistance.

Although, Islamic fanatics wanted to open a third front for their global jihad, they may have just opened themselves to a front they can't sustain.

Much like when Hitler turned on the Soviet Union in WWII, the Islamic fanatics have taken on a new front and brought in a new enemy against them.

Sunday, December 24, 2006

UN Slaps Iran with Sanctions

But the resolution is more bark than bite.

The US hoped for stronger sanctions, but the most symbolic measures may resonate with the youth of Iran.

Acting U.S. Ambassador Alejandro Wolff said the United States hopes Iran "comes to understand that the pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability makes it less, not more, secure."


And what is most important to the youth of Iran is a brighter economic future which is exactly what several nations in negotiations with Iran have offered.

The six key parties trying to curb Iran's nuclear program -- Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and the United States -- offered Tehran a package of economic incentives and political rewards in June if it agreed to consider a long-term moratorium on enrichment and committed itself to a freeze on uranium enrichment before talks on its nuclear program.


But will this latest move by the UN (backed by the US) appear to be too interfering? If President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad can sell to the youth of Iran that the US is the one depriving them of a brighter economic future, then Ahmedinejad may become even more embolden.

However, if the youth of Iran see this as a result of their fanatical leader mortgaging their economic future for some religious Armageddon, the UN sanctions may have the effect the rest of the world is looking for.

Israel's Offer to Palestine

Although, the offer was actually to Abbas.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of Israel and the Palestinian Authority president, Mahmoud Abbas, held their first official meeting on Saturday night, and Israel may soon transfer $100 million in tax money to the Palestinians that it has been withholding, officials said.


It will be interesting to see what direction these negotiations go. If Hamas can infuriate the Palestinian populous by stating Abbas made a deal with the devil by negotiating with Israel, Israel's offer could come back to haunt them.

Hamas' argument would be, 'Israel does not want what is best for Palestinians, but what is best for Israel, and Israel has always wanted us to be their subjects.'

On the other hand, if the Palestinian population is tired of the fighting, there may be some future to this offer.

No Deal with North Korea

US Ambassador Christopher Hill leaves perplexed and empty handed.

American and Asian diplomats said that during five days of negotiations in Beijing, the North Korean delegation declined to discuss disarmament in formal sessions, insisting that it would do so only after the United States removed financial measures that have further isolated Pyongyang from the international economy.


As previously stated, these negotiations aren't going anywhere and are at a dead end. What is frightening is US Ambassador Christopher Hill believes he can somehow negotiate with lunacy.

"We are disappointed that we were unable to reach any agreement," Hill said Friday evening. "It was certainly a surprise that they refused to engage on the main issue before the six parties."


Now that North Korea has a nuclear device, they are not going to give it up under any circumstances.

But the latest impasse may signal the increased difficulty — analysts say the near impossibility — of persuading North Korea to give up its nuclear program now that it has tested a nuclear device and declared itself a nuclear weapons state.


Although Hill's efforts should be commended, at this point it is beginning to look like a jobs work program. A bunch of diplomats hang out at a swank hotel, eat some really nice food and call for future talks at a later time at a swank hotel with nice food.

What is disgusting is the US may have to pay of the wayward North Korean regime, just so it doesn't start shopping its wares to terrorists organizations, although it already does. So disregard that argument. All the US can do at this point is sit back and catch the blows as they come.

Saturday, December 23, 2006

Iran's New Revolution

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is about as popular as the Shah in 1979. How much longer can he last in power

The protest, punctuated by shouts of "Death to the dictator," was the first public outcry against Ahmadinejad, one that was reflected Friday in local elections, where voters turned out in droves to vote for Ahmadinejad's rivals.


Back in 1979 the shouts were for death to the Shah and death to America.

The internal problems of Iran far outweigh the foreign affairs to the youth of Iran. The youth of Iran have a bleak future and instead of blaming the US, they have pointed the finger at Ahmadinejad.

The classic course of action for a Middle Eastern government is to blame the woes of the country on the US and Israel. However, Ahmadinejad made a costly error.

While the situation was not ideal in the Khatami years, Ahmadinejad's anti-reformist campaign has led students to value the freedoms they had back then.

They were permitted to hold meetings and invite opposition figures to speak...and could freely publish their journals. Now...their papers are forbidden to print anything but wire stories from official news agencies.

The students also complained about Ahmadinejad's failure to deliver on his promises of economic growth and jobs.


It is one thing to have a bleak future, and it is another to not have the ability to voice your opinion about it.

There are a couple items the US must consider at this point.


  • The US must avoid any perception we are influencing the affairs of Iran. The book, The Persian Puzzle, makes it perfectly apparent that Iran, like many countries, is hyper sensitive to US involvement.
  • Ahmadinejad had lost political equity and his rhetoric is less threatening because of it. The US should not broker a deal with Iran about their nuclear programs at this time.
  • If Ahmadinejad continues down this path, the youth of Iran may do the dirty work for the US.


On the other hand, Ahmadinejad, and the conflict is with Ahmadinejad, not Iran, should consider these points.


  • Ahmadinejad, realizing his star is falling, should quickly come to any deal the world has to offer him.
  • He then needs to take whatever the world offers and turn it into hope for the younger generation.
  • Then, out of the North Korean playbook, send the Iranian nuclear program underground to be unveiled at a later point as necessary.


However, Ahmadinejad is much more brazen than Kim Jong Il, so look for him not be act in a pragmatic way, but in a fanatic way.

Thursday, December 21, 2006

What Sandy Berger Stole

Berger hides incriminating information

How can we be sure the information was incriminating? Why else would he take it? Although he said he took it by accident initially, the truth makes it sound incriminating.

The National Archives Office of Inspector General said that during a 2003 visit to the facility, Mr. Berger left the building unescorted for a break, during which time he "placed the documents under a trailer in an accessible construction area outside Archives 1 (the main Archives building)."


The report said Mr. Berger acknowledged that he later retrieved the documents from the construction area and brought them to his office.


This doesn't sound accidental. What was he trying to hide? That is the problem. Only he will ever know. The American public will never know how close the Clinton administration got to shutting down bin Laden, or what foul ups the administration made in their anti-terrorism campaign.

What other destroyed information could have been used to get bin Laden at this point? The American people suffered for Sandy Bergers desire to protect Clinton. Why does Watergate come to mind?

It is outrageous how the Cheney/Libby case which arguably has a less significant impact on our national security than the Berger case, yet gets much more publicity. Berger was smart to plea bargain, and by the looks of it he got less than a slap on the wrist for him-$50,000 fine, 100 hours service, no security clearance for three years.

The fine should have been a minimum of $500,000 and he should never have access to classified again.

It is interesting though how Clinton faithfuls are so willing to take the hit to save them. It is also miraculous how people with dirt on them end up dead. It is surprising Dick Morris has lasted this long.

Ultimately, what Sandy Berger stole, was the truth about the failings of the Clinton administration that Americans deserve to know.

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Democracy Frightens Al Qaeda

Ayman al-Zawahiri denounces calls for election.

The second-in-command of al-Qaeda on Wednesday denounced a call for new Palestinian elections..."Those who are trying to free Islamic land through elections that are based on secular constitutions... will not free a grain of Palestinian sand, but will choke jihad."


Zawahiri made the statement in a tape broadcasted on Al Jazzera TV. It is believed that Zawahiri is still holed up in a cave somewhere with Usama bin Laden on the Afghanistan/Pakistan border.

The fact that elections are being called for by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah is a good sign. The desire to resolve differences democratically is a welcome sign in the Middle East versus calling for jihad against your enemy.

Another good sign is for rational thought is Abbas and Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire and appealed for calm.

What is better is Zawahiri acknowledged this development was a threat to radical jihad by saying it was based on secular constitutions.

The West has an opportunity at this point to do everything it can to facilitate Fatah and Hamas to come to an understanding. For the sake of both sides, nothing can be done overtly, but offers of lifting sanctions, that were installed when Hamas came to power, if elections were held would help the situation.

The Failing American School System

America’s primary educational woes continue to mount up. It seems that every month another third world country without electricity or indoor plumbing surpasses the American youth in Science and Math. A new line of thinking provides an interesting angle on the source of the problem—blame the kids. The kids just aren’t interested in fulfilling their potential.

Although this is a compelling theory, the parents, teachers and society as a whole still deserve the credit for the poor product. Blaming the clay for not molding itself into a work of art is ridiculous, and blaming kids for their educational shortcomings runs along the same thought process.

So what it the crux of the problem? Answer this question and you deserve the $64,000. I would have to take the side of chaos on this topic. There are too many variables to determine what the root cause is, although, there are some trends that should be considered. Society and family size are the two variables I would like to discuss here, starting with family size first.

A smaller family led to a less competitive childhood for middleclass America. Let’s travel back to WWII, it appeared and, the numbers support, that families were larger during the war. Although the parents loved their children, they usually had 3+ children to raise and love. A lost child to a large family in WWII, although a tragedy, doesn’t compare to the loss of an only child in Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). Other effects from smaller families weigh on society. The number of casualties in WWII dwarfs the number of casualties in OIF.

Growing up in a multi-child family forces a child to learn how to compete and fight (for better of worse) for parents’ attention, dessert (Bill Cosby), on the sport field (George C. Scott’s Patton speech), and in the classroom. Competitive sports should foster competitiveness in the classroom and in life. I had a Junior High teacher lament that PE was in the curriculum to foster competitiveness and not to foster a love of athletics. So at one point in US history, competitiveness carried some value in the school system.

Somewhere along the history of US amateur sports in America, the emphasis on winning waned and “trying your best,” and “everyone wins,” became the norm and everyone goes home with a trophy. The message is, “you don’t have to win to be a winner.” Where could this have come from? Most likely this sentiment evolved out of several societal forces, but it is undeniable that parents today try to shield their children from every kind of heartbreak. Why? Could be guilt from both parents working, having children later in life, or only having one child.

Speaking of sports, it is also more difficult to play sports for today’s child. First of all, there is the draw of XBOX, Playstation, DVDs and MTV. And interestingly enough, with video games, there are plenty of websites offering cheats that make you invincible in your game and reduces the competitiveness. Secondly, with the smaller family, there just isn’t the number of kids in the neighborhood to play pick up baseball. My father had no problem playing baseball in the neighborhood and I didn’t have problems playing a pickup touch football game. Basketball still seems popular to an extent, because you can always play one-on-one.

I have a theory about soccer I have heard from others. Soccer is an indicator of the change in society. A lot of parents fled to Soccer in lieu of Football because it was a “safe” sport. Many children were not given, or discouraged from Football because it was dangerous. I found it ironic that after years of soccer studies showed it was more harmful than football, causing brain damage. Football demands competitiveness. The choices are hit the guy or be hit. In soccer, you can stand off in a corner of the playing field, watch the game, do nothing, and at the end of the season still get a trophy.

Society and family are not driving children to excel. True story of a conversation I had with an eighth grader.

Eighth grader, “Sheila is real smart, as a matter of fact she and I are probably the smartest people in our English class.”

“I thought you were getting a ‘B’ in English.”

“Yeah, but we ask the tough questions and really understand what is going on?”

“Then why don’t you have an ‘A’?”

“Oh, anyone can get an ‘A’ if they just do the homework. That is easy, the real smart people ask the tough questions in class.”

“Really? Did you ever think that the real smart people know that getting ‘A’s in class will give them a better chance to get into a good college, and a better chance at a good job and a better chance at a better life? I’m glad you’ve thought that all the way out though.”

Fact: Mediocrity is not excellence.

True story of a conversation with an eighth grade History teacher.
Teacher, “Jake is real smart, as a matter of fact, I’d say he’s one of the smartest in the class. He understands the material and understands the big picture and how it all fits together.”

“He’s getting a ‘C’ right?”

“Yeah, well, he just has a hard time getting his thoughts on paper.”

We now see a part of the problem of today’s school.

In conclusion, parents, teachers and society have to reward excellence not mediocrity. Competitiveness should be fostered. Children should be challenged to continuously improve.

You can see how athletics has changed since Walter Payton. Walter Payton was the best athlete ever up until his time. Why? Because for Walter Payton there was no off-season. He pushed himself all year long. That is why he was better than anyone else. You look at today’s athlete and he cannot take the off-season off, because it will reflect the next year. There is someone out there who is working on the off-season that will take your position.

This needs to be translated to the classroom. As globalization speeds up, finding a good job will become increasingly more difficult, because you are not only competing with Sally and Bill for a job, but Sally, Bill, Francois, Jose, Ahmed and a dozen other people from a dozen other countries. In the real world competition determines who wins and loses, and there is no prize for second place. When Toyota surpassed Ford as the number two automaker, trophies weren’t handed out at Ford.

Airline Merger Talk Faltering

Delta rejects US Airways bid.

Delta said Tuesday it filed its reorganization plan with the US Bankruptcy Court overseeing its finances, and said its interests were better served by remaining independent.


It isn't surprising that airline merger talk is falling by the wayside. Now that airlines are starting to make money again, the need to consolidate is waning.

Ever since 9/11 talk of airlines needing to merge has dominated the airline business. However, the only major consolidation that took place since 9/11 was America West and US Airways merging. And that merger still has hurdles.

What makes airline mergers difficult is there must be a strong airline environment with an aberration, one airline that isn't faring as well as the others, yet fundamentally sound or having valuable assets in the way of airplanes or routes.

Without a strong airline environment, most airlines are worried about keeping afloat all by themselves without being anchored to the problem of merging.

Airline mergers seem to be more trouble than they're worth. According to the above article, the troubles with the previous merger is what is thwarting US Airways attempt to merge with Delta.

Plus, consolidation in the airline industry would only mean higher airfares for the American public and this would not please voters and therefore create problems when being approved by congress during anti-trust hearings.

Letting airlines die in bankruptcy is not a likely option either when it comes to consolidation. Poorly managed airlines (United Airlines and US Airways) were propped up by the government after 9/11 even though letting them die would have benefitted the airline industry.

However, again, these airlines provide jobs to voters who elect government officials, so to remain in office these officials needed to keep these airlines alive in addition to keeping airline competition strong to keep prices down for other voters.

Tuesday, December 19, 2006

China Has its Own Ideas on How to Deal with North Korea

China motivated to convince North Korea to disarm.

And, [Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill] said, China was now generating "ideas of its own" at the six-nation talks under way in Beijing in an effort to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.

"I think we have been working well throughout this six-party process, but maybe since the nuclear test the quality of that relationship has actually improved," Hill said after the second day of talks. "We really share the goals of this six-party process. The Chinese really want to get this done."


Like I said in North Korea First Move as a Nuclear Power. China was going to be very motivated to get North Korea to disarm.

What is disturbing is Hill sounded surprised that China would come up with ideas of its own on how to deal with North Korea. He should know the dynamics and repercussions of North Korea being a nuclear power.

The other issue not addressed in this article is how Japan will play a part in this. If Japan indicates it needs to build a nuclear program, China will double its efforts to disarm North Korea.