The French Insurgency

Today the insurgency in France calmed just a little and probably will go underground for several months until the next "accidental death" of a Muslim in a northern Paris suburb occurs. The French riots of 2007 were worse than the 2005 riots-this time the insurgents brought weapons.

The discontent in France is well known. The unions have priced France out of the market place creating a strain on employment. Immigrants and first generation French face barriers breaking into the workforce.

This leads to disenchantment and tension in the poorer Muslim neighborhoods. This pool of gasoline requires only the smallest of sparks to light up into violence. And the level of violence has increased.

This year like two years ago involved the "accidental" death of Muslims.

As in 2005, this week's rioting was triggered by the deaths of two youths in a clash with the police. This time, the two teenagers, riding a mini-motorbike without wearing crash helmets, were killed in a collision with a police car.

The major difference is that this year, the rioters are no longer just rioting, they've come armed.

Unlike in 2005, when almost no firearms were used by either the rioters or the police, and the violence was primarily arson and rock-throwing, a number of hunting shotguns were used to fire at the police this time.

The government will go back and reevaluate how to deal with this problem obviously, but so will the insurgents. The insurgents, and no they aren't really insurgents yet, have changed their tactics since 2005. How this came about is a question worth asking. Did the insurgents say, "Next time we'll have guns," or was it spontaneous, "Hey, let's gets some guns."

This point cannot be underestimated because if it is the former, the insurgency is only a leader away from becoming a no kidding insurgency. The freedictionary.com defines insurgency as an organized rebellion aimed at overthrowing a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict. All the pieces are in place, the insurgency in France just needs organization.

The government has been injecting money into the neighborhoods, but has been accused of heavy handedness too. French President Sarkozy on the other hand would like to see a "stronger hand to clamp down on criminality" (Economist).

Neither one of these solutions will work.

These are some things too look for. What will set off the next riot? The insurgents may pull a page from US President Lyndon Johnson's playbook and fabricate a reason for the next riot as Johnson did wit the Gulf of Tonkin.

Will the riot be planned or staged? If the next riot does start from a fabricated turn of events how will the insurgents set it up?

How long will peace last in the tenuous neighborhoods before the next armed conflict?

How well armed will the insurgents be next time? Will the insurgents bring enough firepower to require the French military to suppress the insurgents?

And finally, will the insurgency be limited to France or could it spread to greater Europe? Could Denmark be close behind France's heels?

The current state of affairs (high unemployment) in France and the socialist movement in France guarantees the insurgency will grow.

Gates, Soft Power and GWOT CoGs

The first mistake in the Global War on Terror was not identifying the center of gravity.

The Center of Gravity according to Clausewitz, is the hub of all power and movement upon which everything depends."

The question is, does this still apply in today's GWOT.

Al Qaeda's chain of command is so flat and wide, you cannot assign the center of gravity to any of its parts, movements, people or ideology. If you remove any of this you will still have disenchanted people angry with the US and willing to do anything they can (including suicide) to attack the US. President McKinley was assassinated by an anarchist in 1901. So Al Qaeda isn't the first group of disenchanted to attack the US.

The Center of Gravity for the Global War on Terror is the disenchanted.

The problem is this CoG doesn't translate well to bomb dropping and airpower.

While Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and other military contractors would like to see more military spending on their programs as the answer to GWOT, the truth is, military spending won't win GWOT.

According to Gates, the US must dramatically increase its budget for soft power agencies and programs. "We must focus our energies beyond the guns and steel of the military, beyond just our brave soldiers, sailors, Marines and airmen. We must also focus our energies on the other elements of national power that will be so crucial in the years to come."

Peace in Baghdad Tenuous

The tenuous peace descending on Baghdad was built on a strange concept.

Take the two warring factions, give them guns and badges and tell them to patrol the area.

Considering the downside, the US is literally giving arms to some former Al Qaeda memebers (or associates), insurgents, and general thugs.

One person was shot for being a suspected sniper. He was checking a water tank on top of his building.

Another displaced couple went back to their old neighborhood to check on their home and found a couple bullets tied by a string, evidently a threat from the occupying faction or a house warming gift-who knows.

Imagine this, think of the most contentious gang war in the US (probably in LA somewhere) and give both sides guns and badges and tell them to patrol the streets.

It sounds like the idiots are running the asylum.

Here's the catch, it's working.

Walid Mahmoud reopened his Napoli Pizzeria last week after shuttering it for more than three years. Situated next to the Green Zone, his restaurant was one of several popular eateries lining a central street that had been a constant target for suicide bombers.

Like many Baghdadis, Mr. Mahmoud says he is heartened by a recent decline in violence. In October, attacks across Iraq dropped 55 percent; civilian fatalities in Baghdad alone have dropped 75 percent compared with June, according to the US military. (Christian Science Monitor)

Although the peace is tenuous, it is peace. It is a starting point. It is the first step to the solution in Iraq.

The mistake the US made initially was misidentifying the center of gravity for Iraq. It wasn't Baghdad. It was the tribal leaders. After trying to restore order from the top down, from the central government in Baghdad, the US has learned from one of it's field grade officers, that the key to peace in Iraq begins with the tribal leaders.

Although Democrats still want out of Iraq. The current situation warrants more time and resources.

Presidential Field Lacks Leader

The 2008 presidential field lacks one thing-leadership. They're all politicians. Even McCain, who at some point had leadership skills and still does, is now just trying to get elected. With that said, the US is tired of Republicans and has decided it will now elect a democrat for office.

Edwards is frightening, but he spends too much time on his hair, and watching the Obama/Hillary show to get elected.

What scares me is Obama.

Some people criticize Hillary because she is cut throat. Well, she is, just ask Vince Foster-if he was around. Although I distrust the lady and am terrified by her financial positions at least she knows the foreign affairs arena.

Nobody likes a pit bull, unless they are on your side. That is what the US would get with Hillary. Just like she won't put up with nonsense from Bill, she won't put up with nonsense from a foreign entity.

With Obama, ah, who knows? He seems to think that if you smile and say some niceties about each other we can all just get along.

This is frightfully ignorant of world affairs. There are people, organizations, and countries that would love to see the US fall flat on its face. And there are more evils out there than just the Axis of Evil.

Obama's attitude gives the impression he doesn't know the complexities of world affairs. Why the US doesn't get involved with Darfur. Why the Yuan is semi-pegged to the dollar. Why natural resources in Africa usually means doom for that country. Why the growing Muslim population in Europe is something to fear. Why Germany, and now, France have elected conservatives.

Obama has shown little capacity to understand these issues. But, he did drink and do drugs in high school and was able to overcome. Give the man a medal I guess.