Iraq’s Top Clerics Disillusioned with Iraqi Government

The United States learned late in the Iraqi War that Baghdad was not the Center of Gravity for Iraq, the top clerics are. This led to the sweeping success of the Anbar province.

The top four clerics, called the marjaiya, ceded some of their power to support the central government. Unfortunately, after decades of a totalitarian despot leader, the Iraqis know very little about a popular government and disillusionment is growing in the populous.

The government is stuck and basic services are not getting to the Iraqi people. The Iraqis are so upset with the marjaiya that they are now targeting them for assassination.

How the US failed Iraq. The US in its quest to build a democratic secular Iraq tossed aside centuries of culture to install a government completely foreign to Mesopotamians. The US would have been better off establishing a weak central government that loosely bound the different provinces of Iraq.

This in itself would have created several problems, like sharing oil revenues, but the problems would have been miniscule compared to what the US is experiencing now. The power in Iraq rests with the clerics and town elders, not the central government.

If the central government would have quickly established order and controlled the nefarious types like the rogue cleric Muqtada al Sadr, and provided basic services it would have established legitimacy with the Iraqi people. Instead, it has spent two years arguing and looking more like the US government going nowhere and doing nothing than establishing order.

What happens next is not going to be a pretty sight. The clerics, justifiably so, will pull their support of the central government. The central government will lose what little legitimacy it hasn't already squandered.

The good news is the US is already ahead of the curve and started establishing relationships with the village leaders. Hopefully when the central government completely collapses the US will already have established the relationships necessary to try to salvage order in Iraq.

Huckabee’s Ace-Southern Governor

It seems the US can't get enough of southern Governors-Carter, Clinton, Bush and now Huckabee all since 1976 and if you add in California and Reagan, that is a Governor in the White House every term except for one during Bush 41's tenure.

The US hasn't elected a seated Senator to the White House since JFK. This doesn't bode well for the Democratic party. The problem is that Senators tend to leave too many skeletons in the closet to ever get elected, "I voted against before voting for," is a song just about every Senator could sing. The politicking in the Senate (and House) is so ugly and misconstrued that no Senator could defend every vote they might make.

More about Huckabee and Carter-At the end of the Vietnam War and President Lyndon Johnson's fumbling of the execution of the war to include trumping up a lie to get congress to authorize military attacks in the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution led to disillusionment with the presidency in the American people. This led to the unconstitutional (although not yet tried) War Powers Act to hamstring the president's military authority. Then the Watergate criminal acts of the Nixon administration led to even further disillusionment with the presidency for the American population.

Enter Jimmy Carter a bumbling peanut farmer from Georgia. The American people were so frustrated and disgusted with the US presidency that they elected someone who wasn't smart enough to play politics-or do anything else for that matter. Americans felt secure with the southern slow minded president who had no past to speak of and seemed to have very little ambition.

Could this be the same formula of success for Arkansas' Governor Mike Huckabee? Clinton proved to be slick with Monica gate and a wife that seemed as interested in running the country as he did fornicating with interns. The Clintons left the Democratic party in a mess with an incompetent Vice President only to run against another southern governor. The problem with this southern governor who has proven to be too slow to play politics is he surrounded himself with shady people who were much more intelligent than he was and also had agendas of their own. His presidency was hijacked by a couple special interest politicians and he's left watching the show. Reagan during his final years with Alzheimer's affecting his mind had a better idea of what was going on in the White House than Bush did on his most lucent days.

Change, like so often is the order of the day for the presidency. Yes, Barack Obama would be a change, but he is entirely too slick and political for Americans ever to trust him. It is funny because people didn't believe him because he was almost too good to be true. So he bared the flaws of his childhood. Even then Americans were too quick to forgive. When Barack Obama speaks, you hear a used car salesman telling you how much this '73 Gremlin will bring fulfillment to your life. At least with Hillary Clinton, you see her warts, you know her warts and that brings comfort to Americans.

Huckabee on the other hand has warts, but for the most part America looks at them and considers them benign. He's just an "aw shucks" Southern Baptist Minister that is socially conservative and fiscally liberal.

And just like every other southern governor, he'll be a disappointment also as president.

Conservatives Running the World

First Germany elected Angela Merkel a conservative compared to Britain's conservative Margaret Thatcher. Then in a shocking turn of events, France turned to a conservative in Nikolas Sarkozy. And now, South Korea is the latest to ditch the liberals in exchange for conservative leadership.

Lee Myung-bak, the conservative candidate, crushed the liberal opposition nearly 2 to 1, 48% to 26%.

President Roh Moo-hyun the liberal candidate proved incompetent in handling the economy and more importantly when dealing with North Korea. Roh strained ties with the US by criticizing the US's hard line tactics with North Korea.

Like France, the soft approach didn't go over well with South Koreans who brought in a change and elected a conservative.

Many South Koreans believe that Kim Dae-jung's "Sunshine Policy'' of being friendly towards North Korea, which continued under Mr Roh, brought them little in the way of security. Kim Jong Il's dictatorship developed and tested nuclear bombs despite it. South Koreans suspect that vast amounts of money have been paid to the north in return for summits with the dictator. Mr Lee wants an end to aid if North Korea does not give up its nuclear-weapons programme. He intends to use six-party talks (with China, America, Japan, Russia and North Korea) to put pressure on the north.

What is noteworthy is that while the rest of the world has complained about the US's aggressive foreign policy, they've been quick to change their own leadership to emulate the US's aggressive foreign policy.

Meanwhile the United States is flirting with a candidate, Barack Obama, that has shown complete naiveté and incompetent in regards of foreign policy.

Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton pointed this out during a Democratic debate earlier this year. When asked if he'd meet with antagonistic leaders from hostile countries to the US, Obama stated he would without qualification. Only when Clinton pointed out how irresponsible and naïve it would be to meet with these nefarious type offering free propaganda and legitimacy to their corrupt rule did Obama add qualifications.

The one thing the US can least afford at this point in history is a president that doesn't know when he is being used as a pawn for propaganda purposes by a foreign leader that would love nothing more than to see the demise of the US.

Back to South Korea though. There is a reason the rest of the world has voted conservative over these past two years. They've had liberals and they know the world isn't mature enough for liberalism yet. Realism is much more effective at securing national interests. It seems that with liberalism the honest countries give up too much and get very little security in return. Just as the South Koreans how the "Sunshine Policy" worked out for them.

US Turns Back on Trusted Ally

Since 2003 the Kurds of Iraq have worked much more cooperatively with the US than Turkey. Don't forget the 4^th ID fiasco where Turkey denied the US a northern front in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM. Since 2003, the Turkish government has taken a turn away from the secular by electing a Muslim activist for president.

Kurdistan, Iraq has proven to be the most secure and stable portion of Iraq. But now the US is turning its back on the Kurds of Iraq.

The US is using its intelligence capabilities (satellites, aircraft and UAVs) to finger out the separatist Kurds known as the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK).

Turkey claims the PKK is a terrorist organization, well, so were the revolutionaries according to the British in 1775. By whose terms is the PKK terrorist? Turkey has been bombing the PKK since Operation NORTHERN WATCH. We'd have stand down days when we wouldn't fly in ONW so we couldn't witness the Turkish bombing of the PKK and other Kurds.

Needless to say the Kurds are none too happy about this turn of events.

Sunday's airstrikes provoked outrage in Baghdad, particularly among Kurdish members of the country's leadership. Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish regional government, which administers three northern Iraqi provinces, called the attack "a violation of Iraq's sovereignty." He blamed the U.S. military, which controls Iraqi airspace, for allowing Turkish warplanes to cross the border. The Iraqi parliament also condemned the attacks yesterday.

The alternative threat from Turkey is for Turkey to launch a military strike into Iraq. The US has plenty of sticks and carrots to thwart this advance. The first thing the US must consider is shutting down Incirlik AB, Turkey. The airbase is a relic from the Cold War when Turkey played a vital role in keeping the Soviets in check. Its utility is more limited now especially in light of the lack of support the Turks provided during the run up to the Iraq War. The US has options in the area to build bases in other countries that are more US friendy.

But there is something else in the works that might have prompted the issue. From Nightwatch:

The Turkish-Iranian Frontier Commission has signed an agreement for the two countries to cooperate in fighting militants, specifically the Kurdistan Workers' Party, the Turkish Daily News reported today. The agreement also calls for cooperation in fighting drug traffickers and other criminals along the shared border.

This might better explain the US's interest in helping the Turks bomb the PKK. It is better that Turkey get US help rather than turning to the Iranians.

US Finally May Have Leverage to Buy Oil

There are precious few resources that are more valuable than oil. Food tends to be one of them.

Food has been a cheap commodity for decades and the strategic value to produce food has been lost until recently.

Oil on the other hand has been a strategic resource for quite some time. In the 1970s the industrialized nations of the world recognized that oil was a strategic resource that supplied the life force to their economies.

But as oil becomes cost prohibitive, the most logical alternative is something produced right here in the US, ethanol.

If the corn grower can get more money selling his crop to oil companies instead of third world nations why shouldn't he?

The best scenario would be to see Middle Eastern leaders begging the US to produce more food for their populations.

This is the fear though. Liberals would want to see the US provide food at a discount for needy nations. This would be a tragedy, Middle Eastern countries have had years of wealth to establish economies, but they tend to squander their savings instead of investing in their future. Bahrain stands out as one of the few countries that has made the transition.

Hopefully, the world doesn't gang up on the US and demand that we give one of our few natural resources away for chicken feed just like the US was shanghaied in Bali during the global warming talks. It is criminal how the world stole from the US during those talks.

Bottom line is this-you sell us oil at a reasonable price and we'll sell you food at a reasonable price. The best part is food is renewable, oil isn't. Pay us now, or pay us later, we all have to eat eventually.

US Shanghaied in Bali

Next Christmas will have less soup in the soup kitchen, less room at women's shelters and less money for our children's education.

The world ordered the US to clean up the backsides of growing economic powers and economic enemies like India, China and Brazil.

Finally, after a succession of delegates lambasted the American position, the U.S. delegation acceded to language pledging industrialized countries to provide quantifiable technological and financial aid to less well-off nations, including the economically burgeoning China, India and Brazil.

China-a less well of nation! According to whom? The trade deficit is in the neighborhood of $300 billion dollars annually. That is $300 billion the US gives to China in return for poisonous food and toys among other items. Meanwhile, China has amassed trillions in federal reserves. China is by no means a, "less well-off nation."

The funds for these programs are going to come straight out of the mouths of America's hungry. The Defense budget won't be touched, the US is in midst of a cut throat financial and cyber war with China at the moment. Congress will have no other choice than to take this money out of the mouths of social programs the poor in the US depend on.

What about raising taxes? Raising taxes has never affected the Al Gores of the world; he'll simply find another tax loop hole. It will affect the middle class though, and it still won't raise enough money to cleanup China.

The sad and comical truth to this is that China will eventually finance the US so we can give the money back to China to clean up their environment. China gives us a renminbi, we give it back to them and they charge us interest on it.

The ineptitude of American diplomats never ceases to amaze. In the chess match of foreign diplomacy the US walked away with a pawn while the world is defiling our queen in the dungeon of some highly toxic Chinese factory.

To my fellow Americans, it is time not to learn Spanish, but Mandarin for our grandchildren will wash up on the shores of Shanghai hoping someone will hire them to mow their yard or wash their clothes.

Iranian Nukes Sabotaged!

Although only the most naïve (Barack Obama) believe the NIE and that Iran has halted their nuclear weapons program, it seems American allies took action upon themselves to end the Iranian nuclear program. From The Australian (last paragraph of article):

Meanwhile, Tel Aviv daily Haaretz reported yesterday that straw companies set up by Western intelligence bodies had succeeded in supplying Iran's nuclear program with defective equipment that has caused centrifuges being used to enrich uranium to collapse or explode.

Note: By "Western Intelligence" they mean bodies outside the US because the US no longer has the political courage to commit such an act. Imagine how appalled the Barack Obamas and Oprah Winfreys of the world would be if they knew the US took part in securing a better peace for the world.

Two days ago, I blasted the US for abandoning its allies and leaving them high and dry in their efforts to end the Iranian nuclear weapons program. I imagine the allies are laughing it up at the pub right now over the NIE. American intelligence leadership is so incompetent that it couldn't figure out what is really going on in Iran. One would think that centrifuges collapsing or exploding would have made it onto the NIE.

In fairness to the NIE, that could have been in the classified version of the NIE, or it could be false. The National Intelligence Estimate could be correct (and Iraq has WMD) and there never was a straw company staged by Western intelligence that sabotaged the Iranian centrifuges.

The interesting part of this is that Iran cannot cry foul over the damage caused by the defective equipment because they were treading in water they weren't suppose to be in to start with.

Finally Found-Honest Politicians

In era of political races, politicians stretch the truth to the limit-something we in the Air Force call the ten percent rule. As long as the tall tale has ten percent truth, you can tell it.

But Georgia has found a group of honest politicians. Look quick, it won't last long.

As I've written before, the F-22 is overpriced and outdated and a liability in the financial war China is waging on the US.

The Air Force fighter mafia is so desperate to remain in the 20^th century that they decided to cut personnel to fund their new toy.

There is an ally the Air Force fighter mafia has in this fight-Georgia lawmakers.

Georgia lawmakers wrote to Defense Secretary Robert Gates to assure him that dumping the Raptor would endanger national security, encourage America's enemies and cost 25,000 Americans, 3,000 in Marietta, their jobs.

Granted the Georgia lawmakers didn't inform Defense Secretary Robert Gates how much financial damage the $5 billion price tag would do to the already shaky US economy. The last thing the US need is more national debt, not an outdated overpriced F-22 fighter.

The $5 billion price tag of those planes, the Georgians said, would keep 25,000 Americans working, provide business for about 1,000 contractors in 44 states and help about 75,000 other people who would benefit "indirectly."

I'm always curious, how many of those 75,000 are Chinese? I'd bet dollars to donuts that some of the parts that go into an F-22 are from China.

Remember this when you see a Boeing, Lockheed Martin or Northrop Grumman commercial that shows a soldier out in the field and the commercial professes their commitment to national defense-their first commitment is to their shareholders, not the soldier in the field or the pilot in the cockpit.

It looks like honesty may have been the best policy for this group of Georgia lawmakers. The pentagon may have caved under the Air Force fighter mafia's pressure (grounding fleet of F-15s) and is considering buying more F-22s.

Hopefully the Chinese are willing to buy a little more US debt to finance the plane we plan to attack them with.

NIE Shortchanges Allies

Henry Kissinger, as well as many others, believes the NIE was more a political statement beyond credibility than an NIE.

But lost in the political mess is the effect the NIE has on our allies. From The Australian:

I DON'T think I have ever seen anything quite so foolishly irresponsible by an American administration in the field of diplomacy as last week's release of the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. There is a dismaying clumsiness and stupidity about it, a kind of reckless disregard of allies and consequences, which is both bewildering and bizarre…France's Nicolas Sarkozy and British and German leaders, who had worked to build international diplomatic pressure on Iran, are also humiliated.

Humiliating allies who are trying to create an environment that is more conducive to world peace is not the way to lessen the possibility of conflict.

Additionally, French President Sarkozy brings up an interesting point about Israel. From Nightwatch:

Le Nouvel Observateur magazine published today an interview with President Sarkozy in which he said "if the Israelis consider their security is truly threatened," there will be a danger of war breaking out over Iran's nuclear program. "The problem for us is not so much the risk that the Americans launch a military intervention, but that the Israelis consider their security to be truly threatened," Sarkozy explained.

How will Israel consider the NIE? Does anyone this side of sane believe Israel is going to say, "OK, I guess we have nothing to worry about."

THE US intelligence assessment that the Iranians have abandoned, for the moment at least, their nuclear weapons program has burst like a clap of biblical thunder over troubled Israeli skies.

Says Shavit: [former Massad "I believe we should be very hesitant in accepting this (US assessment). First, intelligence exists to err. Second, American intelligence time and again has made mistakes in the past. Three, we shouldn't rule out the possibility that often intelligence is being used for political purposes and hidden agendas."

Other Israeli sources tell Inquirer the new US assessment contradicts not only Israel's intelligence judgments but also those of the Germans, the French and the Dutch. More…

What has happened here is the US intelligence agency has washed its hands of the Middle East and determined the US can only use two Instruments of Power against Iran, Information and Diplomatic. The goal of the liberal authored NIE was to hogtie Bush's military aspirations in Iran (which never existed in the first place, but to bluff you have to act like you have a winning hand).

But the NIE has also taken the wind out of the sails of any economic sanctions that may come down the pipe. In fact, the NIE now make the US look like the bully who levied economic sanctions on a country that was never doing anything wrong while the sanctions were in place and the sanctions should be lifted immediately. Again from The Australian, "Russia and China, just about convinced of the need for sanctions on Iran to stop uranium enrichment, are now dancing away, entirely off the hook of responsibility." Expect economic sanctions on Iran to be lifted soon.

And amazingly enough, today, Iran and Russia have announced the construction of a billion dollar nuclear power structure in Buscher. It didn't take long for the Russians to continue helping the Iranians with their "peaceful" nuclear program. "But Russia says there is no evidence that Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons and that the uranium Moscow intends to ship to Bushehr is too weak to develop a nuclear bomb. Tehran says its nuclear program is aimed only at generating electricity." Which is less believable than the NIE.

Iran will have a nuclear weapon in short order and Israel will be left out on an island by itself. By publishing the NIE in this fashion, the US has lost its chance to control the situation. Israel will be left to its own devices to control the situation as it sees fit and it will most likely be in a fashion that the authors of the NIE will regret.

Shavit believes that the moment Iran declares it has a nuclear weapon, the Middle East will be transformed much for the worse. Like most Israelis, he is determined that such a moment not come about. But this week, most amazingly, he is wondering whether the Americans have helped him or hindered him.

Dollar Falls, China Panics.

China has planned its financial attack on the US since the late 20^th century, inspired by the supposedly George Soros induced Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s.

But as the dollar falls, China panics.

China, "which is estimated to holds [sic] trillions of dollars worth of reserves in U.S. dollars," is watching their investment disappear as the US dollar falls.

The funny thing, is China was hording those dollars to threaten the US with financial ruin by unloading them on the open market if China ever needed to act so rash-think Taiwan declaring independence before the Beijing Olympics under the assumption Beijing couldn't react before the beginning of the Olympics.

China was setting itself up well for this scenario. Its exports to the US have dropped significantly from 34% to 25% so it is less dependent on American consumption. Otherwise China couldn't openly ruin the US economy without suffering the immediate effects of its largest market drying up.

But the US is well ahead of China. The US has crushed the dollar all by itself without the help of the Chinese flooding the market with US reserves. Since the Yuan is artificially tied somewhat to the dollar, the Chinese Yuan falls with the dollar.

Because the dollar is falling that makes imports for the most part more expensive for the US (unless the currency is tied to the dollar) meaning the US will import less. Conversely, US products become relatively cheaper and US exports should begin to increase.

All of this works against the Chinese financial position. Looks like China was left holding the bag.

 

Guess Who Else Thinks the US Doctored the NIE

It seems the Chinese don’t know what to think the US’s National Intelligence Estimate either.
From Nightwatch:

The daily publication of the Chinese Central Military Commission JieFang JunBao published a signed editorial concerning the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear intentions. The editorial is entitled, “Self-Preservation Mentality, or Hint for Future Actions." Most of the editorial is a summary of the themes of recent US NIEs on Iran that have been released to the public. The treatment emphasizes the strategic political significance of the Key Judgments on any decision to attack Iran, similar to most western press treatments. The final paragraph is the only place to repeat the refrain of the title. The authors recognize that the judgment that Iran has no nuclear weapons program allows the US resident to back away from strong language in October about the need to handle the Iranian nuclear program. On the other hand, the authors also see in other key judgments the justification for future attacks. The message is that the Chinese military leadership is not sure what to think but is not confident that the judgments of the NIE make US military action against Iran less likely than before the NIE was published.

It seems the fallout from the NIE befuddles America’s adversaries as much as it does the US leadership.

A reader accused the US of dealing this NIE report for the Iranians in return for Iran to stop supplying insurgents arms in Iraq.

As plausible as this the scenario sounds, there are just a few holes in it. First of all, I seriously doubt that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program and I have very little faith in the NIE-it is a doctored document. Iran didn’t have to offer up anything for the US to screw up this NIE.

Secondly, the NIE stated that they halted their nuclear weapons program back in 2003-that was well before the US acknowledged the Iranians were a problem in Iraq.

Thirdly, the reduction in casualties in Iraq was a direct result of two things. 1) The surge in US troops chasing down al Qaeda. 2) Change in tactics and recognizing the COG to Iraq was not in the central government, but in the village elders and getting buy in from the Iraqi village elders. Note: If Rumsfeld had used the number of troops the military stated was needed, we could have secured the Iranian border and we would have the Iranian weapons problem. Look for US casualties to increase in the post surge era. Al Qaeda will filter back into the cities and start attacking again. Today the troops know where al Qaeda is, they just don't have the manpower to go after them.

Also, the US does tinker with aiding Iranian separatist groups. Iran won't make a deal with the US as long as the US is aiding those separatist groups that operate within Iran's borders.There is one thing that rings true, look for the US after the presidential election to become more isolationist in terms of the military IOP. The US will elect some patsy that will negotiate away our queen in exchange for a pawn and declare, "peace in our time."

Now the Chinese are confused, this is almost comical.

What should have been a complete disaster for American credibility has turned into an advantage for the US. Having adversaries worry about your true intentions makes them step lighter when treading in your territory. You never know when the US might pull a “crazy Ivan.”

Guess Who Else Thinks the US Doctored the NIE

It seems the Chinese don’t know what to think the US’s National Intelligence Estimate either.
From Nightwatch:
The daily publication of the Chinese Central Military Commission JieFang JunBao published a signed editorial concerning the US National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear intentions. The editorial is entitled, “Self-Preservation Mentality, or Hint for Future Actions."
Most of the editorial is a summary of the themes of recent US NIEs on Iran that have been released to the public. The treatment emphasizes the strategic political significance of the Key Judgments on any decision to attack Iran, similar to most western press treatments.
The final paragraph is the only place to repeat the refrain of the title. The authors recognize that the judgment that Iran has no nuclear weapons program allows the US President to back away from strong language in October about the need to handle the Iranian nuclear program.
On the other hand, the authors also see in other key judgments the justification for future attacks. The message is that the Chinese military leadership is not sure what to think but is not confident that the judgments of the NIE make US military action against Iran less likely than before the NIE was published.
It seems the fallout from the NIE befuddles America’s adversaries as much as it does the US leadership.

A reader accused the US of dealing this NIE report for the Iranians in return for Iran to stop supplying insurgents arms in Iraq.

As plausible as this the scenario sounds, there are just a few holes in it. First of all, I seriously doubt that Iran has halted its nuclear weapons program and I have very little faith in the NIE-it is a doctored document. Iran didn’t have to offer up anything for the US to screw up this NIE.
Secondly, the NIE stated that they halted their nuclear weapons program back in 2003-that was well before the US acknowledged the Iranians were a problem in Iraq.Thirdly, the reduction in casualties in Iraq was a direct result of two things. 1) The surge in US troops chasing down al Qaeda. 2) Change in tactics and recognizing the COG to Iraq was not in the central government, but in the village elders and getting buy in from the Iraqi village elders. Note: If Rumsfeld had used the number of troops the military stated was needed, we could have secured the Iranian border and we would have the Iranian weapons problem. Look for US casualties to increase in the post surge era. Al Qaeda will filter back into the cities and start attacking again. Today the troops know where al Qaeda is, they just don't have the manpower to go after them. Also, the US does tinker with aiding Iranian separatist groups. Iran won't make a deal with the US as long as the US is aiding those separatist groups that operate within Iran's borders.There is one thing that rings true, look for the US after the presidential election to become more isolationist in terms of the military IOP. The US will elect some patsy that will negotiate away our queen in exchange for a pawn and declare, "peace in our time."

Now the Chinese are confused, this is almost comical.

What should have been a complete disaster for American credibility has turned into an advantage for the US. Having adversaries worry about your true intentions makes them step lighter when treading in your territory. You never know when the US might pull a “crazy Ivan.”

How the Doctored NIE Works for the US

After receiving a briefing from the State Department in 2006 it was clear that Iran was going to build nuclear weapons and the US couldn't and wouldn't do a thing about it. The US wasn't directly threatened, the moderate Sunni nations of the Middle East are.

All this posturing over attacking Iran by the US is simply that, posturing. The US has nothing to gain by attacking Iran-Iran can't attack the US unless is could get its hands on some serious missiles-hence the US ABM program or if it gave a nuke to a terrorist group which it is unlikely to do.

The NIE proved the US intelligence system is still chasing its tail. Although Iran is building nuclear weapons, US intelligence probably couldn't catalogue the targets necessary to destroy the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Most people in their right mind believe the intelligence on Iran in 2007 is as accurate as the intelligence on Iraq in 2003.

The US doesn't have to worry about Iran getting nuclear weapons; the US is not the immediate target. Israel isn't as nervous as you may think either. The states that are most nervous are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and other moderate Sunni states.

You may have noticed that the rhetoric against Israel from these nations has lessened since the Iranian nuclear weapons program arrived on the scene.

The Iranian nuclear weapons program (the Middle East states don't believe the NIE either) helps the US galvanize the moderate Sunni states against Iran. These states are more disappointed in the NIE than the US is. Basically, this is the US trying to wash its hands of the Middle East. The next US president will pull troops out of Iraq and Afghanistan and leave a power vacuum in the Middle East for the Sunnis and Shiites to fight over. The Shiites (mostly in Iran) are greatly outnumbered by the Sunnis throughout the world. To counter this manpower disadvantage, the Shiites (Iran) need a nuclear weapons program to aid in conquering Iraq once the US bails abandons Iraq. Once the US forsakes Iraq there will be a feeding frenzy for the Shiites (Iran) to conquer Iraq. Having a nuclear weapons program will facilitate this effort.

Strangely enough, the only other country in the area with a nuclear weapons program would be Israel. Looking back, we've noticed the moderate Sunni states rhetoric against Israel has lessened-could Israel come to the rescue of these moderate Sunni states? Stranger things have happened.

Acquisition Process Stymies Army Too

 

The US will spend $200 Billion to transform the Army by investing in Future Combat Systems (FCS).

The FCS comes with a lot of whiz bang toys-see Washington Post Article.

But what will this really deliver for the US?

More debt for one thing is a product of FCS.

As Qiao and Wang stated, and as I've pointed out with the Suez Canal crisis, finances can coerce and a foreign state to bend to a nation's will. So the real winner with FCS (and the F-22) is China.

Like the F-22, FCS under delivered and overran costs.

Future Combat Systems "has some serious problems," said Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), chairman of the House air and land forces subcommittee. "Since its inception, costs have gone up dramatically while promised capability has steadily diminished. (Klein, 2007)

But the reason the Army continues the process is:

"But Brig. Gen. James Terry, who oversees doctrine and training for Future Combat Systems at Fort Bliss, said there is no turning back.

"We have to head toward the future," he said, adding, "I think the train left the station a couple of years ago."

I must say this for FCS, at least it has some GWOT applications. Now, that the CSAF has limited the F-22 to only air superiority and Destruction of Enemy Air Defenses (DEAD) the F-22 will only serve the US to intercept Russian bombers and fight a war with China that will never happen.

Don't blame the F-22 or FCS though. The problem lies in the military acquisition process and the corruption that existed in the past. Congress built hoops for military contracts because of corruption. These hoops stymie the process and give us equipment that is outdated, under delivers and over cost.

Hillary's Biggest Fear

Democratic Presidential Candidate, Hillary Clinton's biggest fear isn't Barack Obama. Her biggest fear is John Edwards. And her fear isn't that Edwards will steal the nomination away from her.

Edwards' position on policy is so squishy that Democrats can't even rally around him. While Clinton and Obama hash it out, Edwards for the most part sits on the sidelines watching the show.

Edwards' plan of attack is to let the other two reach culmination the scoot past them to the nomination. This is all a ridiculous hope of course. Edwards is really running for Vice-President again. He throws out some barbs, but none that sting so much that he'd ruin any chance for him to slide into the VP half of the ticket.

But for Hillary's sake Edwards must remain in the race.

The Democratic party is so fractured right now, there is doubt the Democrats could win the White House. Obama is too far left to win a general election and Clinton is too hated by the right and the extreme left.

The extreme left is monopolized by Edwards and Obama. Currently Hillary enjoys a sizable lead with over 41% of the vote nationally compared to Obama's 24% and Edwards 13%.

But if Edwards pulled out his the majority of his 13% would fall to Obama.

Don't expect Edwards to pull out though. The Clinton political machine is well oiled and managed. Clinton, no doubt has offered Edwards something behind the scenes to make sure he remains in the race.

It is interesting that Obama's naivety isn't isolated to just foreign affairs. Clinton is two chess moves ahead of him in his game of checkers.

What Obama doesn't understand is that the DNC the Clinton political machine built has already chosen Hillary as the candidate, but Obama keeps taking shots at her not understanding that the decision was made nearly 16 years ago that Hillary would win the White House. There is a reason Bill Clinton and Al Gore weren't on the best terms as Clinton 42 left office. It was because there was suppose to be a Clinton 43, not a Bush 43. But now there will be a Clinton 44.

Imagine this, if after 8 years of another Clinton, and Jeb Bush (the one who was suppose to be president in the first place) ran for president, we could have a 36 year run of Bush/Clinton presidencies!

Iran's Nuclear Program Paused-Missile Program in High Gear

Iran has played it slight of hand at bait and switch very well.

It hid its nuclear program well enough to get the world body off of its "To Do" list long enough to slip in some nuclear capable missiles. From Nightwatch:

Iran
purchased from North Korea
in late 2005, according to Agence France-Presse, 18 North Korean-modified
Soviet-designed SS-N-6 submarine launched ballistic missile. The North Koreans
modified the missile for launch from a mobile, land-based launcher and named
their modification the BM 25.





Iran has
lots of missiles, including others provided by North Korea. The BM 25 is special
because it was designed by the Soviets to carry 1 megaton nuclear warheads and
it has been tested successfully in over 500 launches between 1968 and 1988. It theoretically can carry other warheads, but
fas.org only lists a nuclear
payload. It was the main weapons system in the Soviet Yankee-class ballistic
missile submarines. It always was primarily a nuclear warhead carrier and Iran
has 18 of them.





The possession of a nuclear-capable missile is not evidence
that a country has a nuclear warhead for that missile. It is evidence of a
general intent by the leadership, not a specific intent, to possess an
option for developing a nuclear attack capability. This is irreducible simply
from the fact that Iran
bought enough ballistic missiles to equip a launch battalion and that missile is
optimized to delivery nuclear payloads. Serious general intent.





Nations, like people, are presumed to intend to do what they
do. Iran
purchased a nuclear-capable missile delivery system. Curious minds would like to know
why would Iran buy such a
system from North Korea
in 2005, if it abandoned the nuclear warhead program in 2003? This
discrepancy seems to add weight to Ehud Barak’s contention that Iran restarted
the program after a hiatus of unknown duration.

The genius behind this is Iran knows the US and world media to know how to play it against the free world. The world body has the attention span of an ADHD 10 year old after a 4 pack of Red Bull. This has the naive of the free world declaring victory right along side Iran declaring victory.

But only Iran is the true victor.

In a major project such as building a house or a nuclear weapons program there are always things that need attention. If it is raining outside, you don't paint the exterior of the house or lay cement, but you can put in plumbing, work on the inside of the house or do other chores.

When the worlds attention is on your nuclear materials program you stop producing weapons grade nuclear material and focus on building your nuclear weapons delivery capability.

Meanwhile the world will focus on Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea, Sudan, and oh, did you hear Ethiopia and Etritea are after one another too!

Iran-No Nukes?

This wouldn't be the first time that US intelligence dropped the ball on knowing what was going on behind a fanatical Middle East country.

Remember the whole WMD thing with Iraq that US intelligence swore was there?

What is interesting is those who chastised Bush for going into Iraq and should have focused on Iran because Iraq didn't have WMD and Iran did-or would soon. Well, now they are saying that Iran doesn't have Nukes. Funny how their tune changes as soon as the Bush administration started to make moves towards doing something about the country these people said he should have initially focused on.

But all of this really is a misrepresentation. The key statement of the national intelligence estimate is:

The NIE itself says that Iran “at a minimum is keeping open the option
to develop nuclear weapons.” Even if Iran is not currently working on
warheads or missiles to make a nuclear weapon (as it has been saying
for years), it is publicly enriching uranium. Getting the right kind of
fissile material is the hardest part of making a bomb.

This means that Bush was successful at stopping the Iranian quest for nuclear weapons. The Iranian nuclear program slithered underground over the past couple years and will resurface when the US elects a naive president (Obama) that will opt for ceaseless negotiations rather than apply any type of hard power (military or economic). At that time, Iran will have the room to complete the task of building a nuclear weapon and hide it as necessary while pulling the wool over the unsuspecting administration.

Yes, the Iranian nuclear program paused briefly over the past two years, but the goals of the radical Iranian leadership, leads the rational person to believe that pause was only temporary.

Chavez Far from Finished

Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez, narrowly lost his bid to be king, emperor-whatever you wish to call it-dictator of Venezuela.

Chavez hoped to lift the term limits of his presidency that would otherwise end in 2012. More...

The interesting point is that Chavez added several incentives to "buy" votes.

The changes would have created new forms of communal property, let
Chavez handpick local leaders under a redrawn political map, permit
civil liberties to be suspended under extended states of emergency and
allow Chavez to seek re-election indefinitely. Now, Chavez will be
barred from running again in 2012.

Other changes would have
shortened the workday from eight hours to six, created a social
security fund for millions of informal laborers and promoted communal
councils where residents decide how to spend government funds. The
reforms also would have granted Chavez control over the Central Bank
and extended presidential terms from six to seven years.

Interestingly enough Chavez didn't contest the vote because he evidently wanted to take a significant majority like when he won re-election with 63%.

'Don't feel sad,' he urged his supporters, saying there were
'microscopic differences' between the 'yes' and 'no' options in a
referendum that Chavez's opponents feared could have meant a plunge
toward dictatorship.

This is not the reaction you'd expect from the inflammable Chavez that believes the US is out to get him and has compared US President George Bush to the devil. And will most likely treat the next US president the same provided the US President is someone other than Barack Obama whose naiveté on foreign affairs has been well exploited by fellow Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton.

Chavez' opposition can't rest on its laurels, Chavez still has another 4+ years to corrupt the Venezuelan constitution to suit his march to socialism. This is why Chavez was a graceful loser this time.

Look for several arrests of the opposition, the Catholic Church, the wealthy, the press, human rights groups and business leaders by the Chavez government.

Chavez will also sweeten the deal with the poor promising more unproductive redistribution of wealth in return for votes.

Venezuela only won the battle, they haven't won the war.