US Hamstrung in Turkey-Kurd Conflict

During the Cold War, Turkey was a critical ally in NATO. And that seemed to be the norm until 2003 when Turkey stiff armed the US and prevented the 4th ID from opening a front from the North against Iraq. Although this wasn't the point of view of the military, the government said 'no' because it claims it suffered too much financially after the first Gulf War. The Turkish government demanded money that we weren't willing to pay more than $1B for the 4th ID to invade from Turkey.

Since that time, Turkey's military has tried to hold the line against Islamic fundamentalists, but Turkey seems to be going the way of many other Muslim nations.

For the past several weeks, the Turkish-Kurdish has resurfaced again. For those of us who are ONW vets, it wasn't anything new. But the Turkey-Kurd conflict reports are starting to come out faster and more menacing.

The questions that need to be asked at this point are:

How strong are the ties between the Turkish government and its military? The military tried to prevent the Islamic fundamentalists from taking control. The US has had a better relationship with the Turkish military ever since 2003 and unlike the US, the Turkish military wields more power in the government than the US military does over American government. Although the Turkish military attacks on the Kurds has always been a source of contention between the US and Turkish military, in general, the two have been very supportive of each other.

This begs the second question, who is behind the Turkey invasion in to Iraq, the government or the military? The US has more influence on the Turkish military. If it is the military, the situation is not as dire as if it is the Turkish government calling for the attacks. The US has less influence on the situation if the government is behind the invasion.

On the other side, how integrated is support for PKK with the rest of the Kurds? The Kurds obviously sympathize with the PKK to some extent (although there has been infighting between the three Kurdish organizations) but if the US were to take action against the PKK in support of Turkey, how will the rest of the Kurds react?

The Kurds of Iraq are probably the most loyal ally the US has-period. Does the US risk taking action against the Kurds in support of an ally that has been leaning away from the US for the past several years? Or does the US support the weaker more supportive ally.

But the US can't directly support the PKK, because it is a terrorist organization-it just happens to be tied to an ethnic group that highly supports US interests.

The US will sit this out and play the diplomacy card, although the diplomacy card will do nothing. The hope is that both sides get bloodied enough that they stop the nonsense on their own. If it does get worse it could be paradoxical moment in US foreign policy.

Worst of all, the crisis will probably climax about the time the foreign policy neophyte, Barack Obama, begins his administration.

Update: Christian Science Monitor echoed my statements one day later stating some Turkish leadership think the US is making a critical mistake by providing the Turks with intel. It is hard not to agree with them.