Taliban Enjoying Refuge in Unstable Pakistan

The headline on the Department of Defense website states, "General Says Infiltration Down in Eastern Afghanistan." This is the equivalent of looking at a cup with a few drops of water in it and calling it half full.

Army Maj. Gen. David Rodriguez, the commander of NATO's Regional Command East says there are a number of reasons the Taliban is disappearing. The porous Pakistani border is the major reason the Taliban is disappearing in eastern Afghanistan.

The truth is the Taliban found itself a better target of opportunity, Pakistan. With US ally, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, on the way out the Taliban surely hopes to have greater access to northwest Pakistan on the Afghanistan border. More on Musharraf's exit.

The bonus for the Taliban is if it can influence Pakistan, it would then have access to Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Although their native Pashtun tribal area is the Afghanistan/Pakistan border, the thought of nuclear weapons is tempting for any terrorist organization or sympathetic government. The course of action the Taliban should take is to try to legitimize itself in Pakistan. This may mean tempering terrorist attacks and using more soft power to win the hearts and minds of the Pakistanis.

If the Taliban can establish roots in Pakistan that take hold, in 20--30 years, it could be the ruling party of Pakistan. Some may say this is impossible, but they probably said last summer that McCain would never win the Republican nomination.

The point is, shift happens. Twenty to thirty years is a long time. Where was China twenty years ago? Did you ever believe capitalism would win over in China? Where was Berlin 20 years ago? In conclusion, 20 years is ample time for the Taliban to control Pakistan if it follows a sound course of action.

The worst part is that the US has limited access to Pakistan when it comes to tracking down the Taliban and al Qaeda in Pakistan. The US military can't roam the Pakistani countryside looking for the Taliban like it can in Afghanistan.

Of course, Barack Obama has already stated that once he is president he will act unilaterally (without consultation with Pakistan or any other country for that matter) on al Qaeda targets in Pakistan. "Obama said if elected in November 2008 he would be willing to attack inside Pakistan with or without approval from the Pakistani government, a move that would likely cause anxiety in the already troubled region."

More...Taliban makes demands on new Pakistani government-leave us alone-or else. Pakistan is only a stone's throw away from becoming a radical Islamic state with nuclear weapons.