Tibet Rioting, When Will Taiwan Make Its Move?

China has now upped the death toll in Tibet to 16 from last week's riots. The Dalai Lama the exiled spiritural leader of Tibet has instigated the riots in Tibet and has asked his followers not to surrender.

If you remember to last October, President Bush met with the Dalai Lama to give him the Congressional Gold Medal which infuriated China. This gave some amount of legitimacy to the Dalai Lama frustrating China's attempt to continue suppressing Tibet.

The question now becomes, what will Taiwan do-nothing likely. Taiwan has been moving towards a more peaceful stance towards Beijing.

In Taiwan, the pro-independence ruling party of outgoing President Chen Shui-bian seized on the violence in Tibet and China's threat of harsh measures against protesters as a warning of what could lie in store for the island if it was reunited with the mainland.

The front-runner in the presidential race, the Nationalist Party candidate Ma Ying-jeou, has campaigned strongly for improved ties with China, but he also called for an end to the "violence used by Beijing authorities."

Another indicator is President Bush didn't make any overtures towards Taiwan that would embolden them to act rash.

The driving force behind this might be that the US isn't obligated to Tibet by a military alliance like it is to Taiwan. If Taiwan and China were to come to blows, the US would be obligated to come to Taiwan's defense. There is doubt as to whether the US would actually come to Taiwan's defense and might have to appease China to avert World War III.

The Bush administration has changed its commitment towards Taiwan.

Consider the change in President Bush's stance. Shortly after he took office in 2001, Bush told an interviewer the U.S. would do "whatever it takes" to protect Taiwan. "Our nation will help Taiwan to defend itself," he declared.

This coincides with China's growing military power. The consequences of the US failing to defend Taiwan include:

* Damage, and possibly destroy, the U.S. reputation as a reliable ally in the eyes of treaty partners in South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand and Australia. The same would be true of friends in Singapore, Indonesia and India.

* Jeopardize U.S. naval supremacy in the western Pacific and give China control of the northern entrance of the South China Sea, through which passes more shipping than through the Suez and Panama canals combined.

* Undercut the ability of any administration in Washington, Republican or Democratic, to persuade other nations to become democratic.

In a few years though, as China's military continues to grow by leaps and bounds compared to the US military, the US defense of Taiwan will be in words only.